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Lf Company Performance Forecast

Autor:   •  November 9, 2018  •  Case Study  •  656 Words (3 Pages)  •  554 Views

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Forecasting Company Performance:

  1. Revenue Forecast

Business Segments

Divided Parts

Assumption

Supporting Facts

Jewelry Retailing

Self-operating
Stores
@Mainland
China

Off-line sales growth of 20%/17%/15% in FY19E-21E

1) Recovering SSSG
2) New self-operating stores opened
3) 12.58% in FY17 & 27.20% in FY18

E-commerce
@Mainland
China

30% growth in E-commerce sales & over 16%/17%/18% of total revenue in Mainland China in FY19E-21E

89% in FY18 & about 15% of total revenue in Mainland China

Self-operating
Stores
@HK, Macau
& Overseas

8%/5%/4% retailing revenue increase in FY19E-21E

1) High base effect
2) Mature and saturated market
3) -17.34% in FY17 & 10.21% in FY18

Jewelry Manufacture and wholesale

Licensing Stores
@Mainland
China

13%/7%/6% wholesale revenue increase in FY19E-21E

1) Focus in rapid developing market —— tier 3 cities and below cities
2) Smaller sales bases & extensive geographical coverage
3) -5.48% in FY17 & 13.55% in FY18

licensing

Licensing Stores
@Mainland
China

25%/20%/18% licensing revenue increase in FY19E-21E

1) Expected 120 new stores in Mainland China (64 in FY17 & 132 in FY18)
2) Licensing fees are fixed cost compared to wholesale revenue which rely on sales growth of licensing stores
3) -2.23% in FY17 & 26.55% in FY18

We forecast the future revenue from company’s 3 business segments —— retail, wholesale and licensing. Revenue from retail is divided by HK, Macau & Overseas markets and PRC market. Detailed assumption and supporting facts are included in the Table above.

  1. Profit Margin Analysis

Driven by increasing sales contributions from gem-set jewelry which commands a significant premium in gross margins (about 35%) vs gold products (about 12%-13%). We believe retailing profit margin will continue to rise. For wholesale business, in order to enhance market competitiveness, the wholesale price of gem-set jewellery products have been reduced, leading to a declining profit margin of this part. What’s more, volatility of exchange rate and gold price can also disturb the profit margin though not immediately substantial influence according to historical records. Overall, we expect the group’s FY19-21E gross margin to continue to remain stable at 25% in FY19E-21E, compared to 25.66%

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