Lf Company Performance Forecast
Autor: meredithlu2018 • November 9, 2018 • Case Study • 656 Words (3 Pages) • 697 Views
Forecasting Company Performance:
Revenue Forecast
Business Segments | Divided Parts | Assumption | Supporting Facts |
Jewelry Retailing | Self-operating | Off-line sales growth of 20%/17%/15% in FY19E-21E | 1) Recovering SSSG |
E-commerce | 30% growth in E-commerce sales & over 16%/17%/18% of total revenue in Mainland China in FY19E-21E | 89% in FY18 & about 15% of total revenue in Mainland China | |
Self-operating | 8%/5%/4% retailing revenue increase in FY19E-21E | 1) High base effect | |
Jewelry Manufacture and wholesale | Licensing Stores | 13%/7%/6% wholesale revenue increase in FY19E-21E | 1) Focus in rapid developing market —— tier 3 cities and below cities |
licensing | Licensing Stores | 25%/20%/18% licensing revenue increase in FY19E-21E | 1) Expected 120 new stores in Mainland China (64 in FY17 & 132 in FY18) |
We forecast the future revenue from company’s 3 business segments —— retail, wholesale and licensing. Revenue from retail is divided by HK, Macau & Overseas markets and PRC market. Detailed assumption and supporting facts are included in the Table above.
- Profit Margin Analysis
Driven by increasing sales contributions from gem-set jewelry which commands a significant premium in gross margins (about 35%) vs gold products (about 12%-13%). We believe retailing profit margin will continue to rise. For wholesale business, in order to enhance market competitiveness, the wholesale price of gem-set jewellery products have been reduced, leading to a declining profit margin of this part. What’s more, volatility of exchange rate and gold price can also disturb the profit margin though not immediately substantial influence according to historical records. Overall, we expect the group’s FY19-21E gross margin to continue to remain stable at 25% in FY19E-21E, compared to 25.66%
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