Trump as Us President

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James Buchanan (1857-1861) - the only one in the entire history of America to an unmarried president, he waved from the bondage problem and turned a blind eye to the fact that the south of the country is about to separate from the North. Then the United States has ceased to be United, South Carolina left the Union, which later, together with six other states, formed the Confederate States of America, and the civil war flared. Buchanan until the last moment refused to take decisive action, for which he was unanimously recognized by the historians as the worst president in US history.

John Tyler (1841-1845) - was a vice president of Harrison, was given the post when Harrison died because. Tyler has not met expectations given to him by the party, but rather inclined to the side of the opposition Democrats. This generated angered, his portraits were ceremonially burned at public rallies. According to historians, Tyler's presidency was the most unjustified in American history, except for a one-month of Harrison.

William Harrison (1841-1841) – he was so proud of his victory in the elections, March 4, 1841 on the inauguration he decided to say a two-hour speech. The day was chilly and windy, but freshly baked President decided to show what he is indomitable hero and by principle did not wearing neither coat nor hat. As a result, he got pneumonia and died a month later. Harrison entered the history with the two records: the shortest presidency and the longest inaugural speech.

As you can see, on the background of his predecessors Trump looks quite ordinary. Moreover, if, having such presidents, the US still has not collapsed, it can be absolutely sure that it will not happen now. Sometimes people tend to overestimate the role of the president in public administration. But yet the president still playing an important role in the state machine, as, for example, does the wheel for the car. United States, in terms of governance, has a well-designed constitution, finely tuned balance between the branches of government, competent state institutions, trustworthy supervisors and other amenities of an advanced democracy. Even a bad president will give better results, than other countries with a less developed political system. So the worst that could happened is a little stormy markets, with speculators withdrawing their profits, and everything will be the rest.

Trump and Reaganomics

Would be Trump the new Reagan, we will see it after some time, but today we can note at least three circumstances that put him in a totally different situation than the one in which the Republican president was in the early 1980s.

Services

First, the economic structure has changed dramatically, in the 1980 US was a model industrial country. The foreign trade deficit was $ 25.5 billion, the balance of payments was positive (+ $ 2.3 billion) and US assets abroad exceeded foreign ownership in the US by nearly 40%. More importantly, imports stood at 8.9% of GDP, and oil and petroleum products accounted for 32% of its. Finally, the share of mining, manufacturing and construction in the GDP was 28%. Now the situation is completely different. United States - the world's largest importer, its trade deficit reached $ 531.9 billion in 2015, and a negative balance of payments surplus (- $ 562.1 billion). Accordingly, imports grew to 16.5% of GDP, while the share of oil and petroleum products decreased to 6.7%. The share of industry and construction in GDP fell to 13.9%.

Today the US economy is a conglomerate of two main sectors: the service sector, which is not subjected to the international competition and where prices are rising constantly, and industry, which has to adapt to global competition and move assembly plants abroad to decrease the costs. Economic growth is provided mainly by the fact that workers' incomes are stagnating (which creates a good environment for business), but the standard of living is enhanced by the reduction in price of imported goods, while the rise in price of services. Thus, the average cost of mobile phone in the US declined in nominal terms since 1995 nine times, the price of cars almost unchanged, while the average bill in the cafe shops increased by half, for a taxi ride 2,3-2,7 times, hotels by more than 2.5 times, and public transportation almost threefold.

Cheap imports saves American small service business and supports the population consumer standards. If Trump tries to "return home the industry", 3-5% of the population will get the benefit and lose the remaining 95%. The only chance to ensure grow of the industrial is the reduction of prices for the services, facilities for which the government does not have (especially if it intends to deal with immigration). Thus, the basic promise of the new president may not be feasible.

Loans

Second, over the past 30 years US economy had a "relaxed" period, people got used to work in a highly concessional lending regime. In the first year of the Reagan presidency, the average rate on ten-year government treasury securities amounted to 13.92% per year; in a year when elections were won by George W. Bush - 6.03%; this year it does not exceed 1.85%.

Reagan's main goal was to lower interest rates, which provided an economic boom. Trump Administration will face, most likely, with the growing rate. In addition, in 1980, US consumers were not as much undoubted as they are today: loans to individuals amounted to $ 962 billion, or 34.5% of GDP. Now this amount (including mortgages and loans for education) is $ 15.1 trillion, or 84.2% of GDP.

Raising rates by at least 10 basis points (0.1%) will take out of the pockets of consumers to $ 140 billion per year, which will significantly reduce consumer spending and further reduce demand, which is so necessary for economic recovery. The upcoming growth of the rates can’t not have an effect on the national budget issues, increasing the cost of borrowing will lead to the increasing in the cost of servicing state debt.

The budget began to be corrected (the deficit decreased from a peak of $ 1.46 trillion in 2009 to $ 438 billion in 2015), and additional tests on resistance are not necessary. Meanwhile, Trump proposed rearmament program and infrastructure development, those will require additional significant costs, which will increase the cost of government borrowing and encourage the general level of interest rates, which is absolutely contrary to all principles of Reaganomics.

Labor force

Finally, we should not write off the third issue - immigration. In recent decades, the