Neorealism and the Gulf States

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In trying to stop nuclear weapons proliferation Israel could actually persuade previously ambivalent nations to pursue such programs to fill the perceived power imbalance left by a humbled Tehran . Anti-Israel sentiment is already high in Egypt. A Greenberg Quinlan Roslin poll of 812 people (half of them women) sponsored by the Israel Project indicated majorities supportive of Iran’s nuclear project, friendly Iranian-Egyptian relations while wanting the dissolution of the Egyptian-Israeli diplomacy, an end to existing peace treaty, and a two-state solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict . While one cannot conflate anti-Israeli sentiment with militancy or anti-Semitism, these levels of frustration provide fertile grounds for the manipulations of violent, non-state actors, and can push state actors to pursue policies amenable to public opinion, but not within Israel’s security interests. Poignantly, a war in Iran could give the governing Muslim Brotherhood-linked officials justification to pursue a nuclear program of Egypt’s own, appealing to popular opinion in aggressive opposition to what the Brotherhood calls a “racist and expansionist state” . Opportunists like A.Q. Khan would doubtless want to help in such endeavors .

Israel should not bomb Iran, as Iran would pose no threat to the country under Waltz’s neo-realist framework of mutual deterrence. Military engagements would serve only to further alienate Israel’s neighbors and provide constructivist, non-state actors the opportunity to instigate more anarchy throughout the greater Middle East. The Israelis should abandon policies advocating aggression and sanctions as they only serve to build up a destructive casus belli . What Israel should instead do is build upon stability brought by this neo-realist understanding of nuclear power, insuring that Iran is the only rival to have such second-strike capabilities while working with allies to prevent the violence of constructivist, non-state actors, perhaps even working alongside the Iranians; Al Qaida-type extremists have little love for the Shi’ite-majority state. By following this program of mutual deterrence, the security of interests of Israel and its allies would be well-defended throughout the region.