Puma Se Forecasted Financial Statements
Autor: Joshua • October 30, 2017 • 1,131 Words (5 Pages) • 651 Views
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http://markets.ft.com/research/Markets/Tearsheets/Forecasts?s=PUMX:GER
After I combined all the factors that might affect sales of Puma SE, I got the total percentage, by which I multiplied sales and got the results of the next 10 years.
COGS were €1640 million. Last 5 year COGS/Revenue ratio is 54% (and this is nearly the same for past 10 years). For all next 10 years I used this average. I assume the same average of COGS to revenue will be for next 10 years.
Excise taxes are relatively the same for every year, because this item closely depending on production cost which is written in PM report.
I used forecast ratio of selling and administrative expenses to revenue and multiplied by forecasted sale.
Research and development expenses are relative to revenue as of 0.26% (average for past 5 years). This ratio multiplied forecasted sale will give us R&D forecast.
Other operating expenses are forecasted from operating expenses to sales ratio. It is based on assumption that operating expenses will act as revenue move because they are used to generate revenue.
Depreciation.
I forecasted depreciation in the following order: depreciation is constant since depreciation of 2013 to PPE of 2012 is the depreciation rate, PPE of 2013 times depreciation rate is PPE of 2014, but we need replacement of PPE by at least equal to exact depreciation, so after analyzing capital expenditure of PUMA SE over past 10 years I came to decision that both capital expenditures and depreciation move smoothly with total sales, based on this assumption I took the ratio of depreciation to revenue for forecasting. Depreciation rate is 6%.
2nd step. Forecasting balance sheet.
I used stock approach to forecast balance sheet, which focuses on forecasting the line items in the balance sheet directly.
First of all I analyzed historical data on relation between revenue and capital expenditure for last 10 years and made assumption that capital expenditures will grow at 7% rate because last year trend shows that Puma SE making fixed investment at approximately between 5-10% to provide the revenue. I added forecasted current year depreciation to accumulated depreciation from previous year and forecasted capital expenditure to the Property Plant Equipment at cost.
Year
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Capital
Expenditure
-72,6
235,70
272,04
311,35
352,45
405,74
464,98
535,75
620,45
719,72
839,84
982,36
Total
Revenue %
8,56%
7%
7%
7%
7%
7%
7%
7%
7%
7%
7%
7%
Next is the forecasting operating line items according to the table below:
[pic 1]
I made my model on forecasting the capital expenditure, PPE, accumulated depreciation, and depreciation by the following steps
• Calculate capital expenditures by computing as a percentage of revenues, which is 7% approximately.
• Forecast depreciation, typically as a percentage of gross or net PP&E, which is 6% approximately.
• Calculate accumulated depreciation by computing the previous plus depreciation.
Goodwill is not amortized and it is assumed that it will costing constant.
Since we don’t have clear information on future plans for pension benefits-underfunded we assume it will stay constant for each second year.
Dividend. Chevron shows 9% increase in cash dividend per share over past years in its annual report.
Year
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Dividends (forecasted)
7,5
7,65
7,80
7,96
8,12
8,28
8,45
8,62
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