Sustentabilidad Poblacional

Sustentabilidad poblacional

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Ethics on population sustainability

Our planet is overcrowded, ONU's best projections place the human population in over 11,000 million of people for the year 2100 (Img.1). While it is true that the projected global growth is not precisely exponential as the experimented on the past century by the planet (Img.2); it is vital to understand and analyze the implications that the accelerated population growth has and will have for all mankind and to the earth itself.

Img 1. Projection of the population growth (ONU) Img 2. Experimented population growth __________________________________________trough history.

Malthus

Thomas Robert Malthus FRS, important XIX century mathematician, developed an equation to forecast the population growth of any biological closed system. At the beginning, Malthus, proposed that human populations tend to growth "exponentially"; he predicted that humans would doubled their numbers within each generation. Nowadays, we have acknowledged that this is ain't always true for humans, due the limited availability of recourses; on the other hand it has proved to be an effective equation for the modulation and forecasting of bacterial growth, until of course, they reach the point where the resources are depleted.

Img 3. Exponetial function with graphic

On human communities, the only realistic way to maintain an exponential growth, is by increasing the resources at the same rate as the population, which in a finite world, its is virtually impossible, even with the help of the technology.

We can understand why this exponential function failed to forecast human population. It was some years later that another equation was used (a modification of Malthus law) to model those projections: The Logistic model, in which we take for accounted the "population limit" due overcrowded communities that depleted the resources of their surroundings, or in the human spectrum, accounting for diverse sociopolitical events, which lead us to a more accurate representation on the model of human population growth.

Img 4. Graphic of the logistic model equation

This graphic now does shows us an saturation of the system, and a decline on the rate of growth, thanks to the incorporation of new constants, which account for the population in previous years, while making the timeframe smaller. As well as A new "K" representing mathematically the capacity of the surroundings to sustain a population according to a death-birth rate.

Monterrey https://optyestadistica.files.wordpress.com/2010/05/linechartnorte.png

Monterrey, a northern city of Mexico, currently has a population of 4,106,054 inhabitants, on the Img. 5 it is presented the population growth experimented by the city during almost a century. In some degree, this growth, can be explained by the exponential equation, but we can also visualize the decline of this growth rate as the logistic model Img 5. Population growth on the metropolitan forecast. ______________________________________________________________area of Monterrey

It is important to point out that while exponential growth is possible in cities, this is only possible for a time, when the constant construction of houses, streets, buildings and cars reach an unsustainable panorama for their inhabitants this cities turn uninhabitable.. The lector must acknowledge that the Monterrey metropolitan area is in very good economic position compared to other cities in Mexico, which provides it with wealth, whose ethical implications will be discussed later.

The exponential growth of human populations is a sustainability problem in terms, for the simple reason that resources are not unlimited, and pollution of the environment in areas where poverty is high, is inevitable. A city with high growth rates is almost certainly a city with high poverty rates. It has been established throughout history that poverty and lack of planning and action by the government invariably leads to unrestrained population growth.

Without going any further, the urban core of the metropolitan of Monterrey, "legally" grows 80 thousand hectares a year, and in practice 100 thousand hectares per year. http://cedem.mty.itesm.mx/imagenes/mapabaseAMM.jpg

The lack of projections of growth (or error in these projection), have caused a current environment of pollution similar to those of several decades ago in Mexico City, the lack of projection and action by the government have caused the generalized traffic ______________________________in all of the city. The crime has increased due the ____________________________ the lack of integration